As per 2001 Census, NCT of Delhi had a total population of 138 lakh. NCT Delhi is highly urbanized with 93.18% of its population living in urban areas as against the national average of 27.81%. During 1991-2001, the urban population of Delhi increased at 3.87% annual growth rate. With the continuation of the present population trend, the total population of NCTD by the year 2011 and 2021 would be 182 lakh and 225 lakh respectively. Envisaging a balanced regional development, the population for the NCTD has been projected as under:
The population assignment stipulated in the Regional Plan-2021 for the National Capital Region (NCR) and National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCTD) are as given below:
Table 2.1 : Population Assignment - 2021
Area
Population (In lakh)
NCR
641.38
NCTD
220-230
Source: NCR Plan-2012
While it may not be possible to make an accurate forecast, the expectation is that the population of Delhi may range between 220 to 230 lakh in the year 2021. However, requirement of land, provision of infrastructure and transportation, etc. should be planned for the projected population of 230 lakh.
The population estimates for NCTD at five year intervals are given in the following table:
Table 2.2 : Five Yearly estimates of Projected Population
Year
2001
138
2006
162
2011
182
2016
199
2021
230
Source: Census of India and projections by DDA Sub-Group (MPD- 2021)
During the course of implementation of the plan, attempts should be made to restrict the population of Delhi lower than 220 lakh by 2021. To a substantial extent, this depends on the effective implementation of the policies and proposals of the Regional Plan -2021 NCR by the Government of NCT Delhi / Agencies, DDA, concerned Central Govt. Department and other NCR participating States.
There has been increase in natural growth from 55.80% in 1981 to 59.21% in 1991 and 60.18% in 2001 and decrease in the net migrants from 44.20% in 1981 to 40.78% in 1991 and 39.82% in 2001. However, a reduction in the rate of natural growth and increase in migration between 2001 and 2021 is envisaged in the MPD 2021. The net increase of population in NCT-Delhi is given below:
Table 2.3 : Population in NCT-Delhi
Addition by
Increase by
Net Increase
Natural Growth
Migration
(in lakh)
1981
12.0
9.52
21.54
(55.8%)
(44.2%)
(100%)
1991
18.9
13.05
32.0
(59.2%)
(40.8%)
26.66
17.64
44.30
(60.18%)
(39.82%)
24.2
20.0
44.2
(54.8%)
(45.2%)
24.0
48.0
(50%)
Note: Figures (in bracket) indicate percentage to total net increase.
Source: Census of India and projections by DDA Sub-Group (MPD-2021)
The DDA Sub-group (MPD-2021) projected that the Rate of elderly population (persons aged +60) is expected to increase from 5.9% in 2001 to 10.7% in 2021. At the same time population of children (aged 0-14 years) would decrease from 29.5% in 2001 to 21.75% in 2021. The details break-up of elderly people and children are given below.
Table 2.4 : Elderly and Children Population
Population in lakh
Elderly (+60 year)
Children (0-14 year)
4.5 (4.8%)
32.8 (34.8%)
8.1 (5.9%)
40.6 (29.5%)
14.2 (7.8%)
45.0 (24.7%)
24.6 (10.7%)
49.9 (21.7%)
Figures (in bracket) indicate percentages to the total population.
The above age-group wise distribution of population should form the basis for providing special facilities to the elderly such as old age homes, low floor buses, special seats in buses, special seats in public toilets and ramps in public buildings.
The participation rate (Working Population / Total Population x 100) for the last two
decades for Delhi is as given below:
Table 2.5 : Participation rate of population
Male
Female
Total
28.8
3.7
32.5
28.3
4.4
32.72
The work force in different economic sectors has been assigned as follows:
Table 2.6 : Projected Work Force for NCTD-2021
Sectors
Work Force
Percentage
1)
Agricultural etc.
0.67
0.8
2)
Manufacturing Processing Servicing Repairs Household Industry
0.34
0.4
3)
Other than Household Industry
17.52
20.9
4)
Construction
5.95
7.1
5)
Trade and Commerce
25.31
30.2
6)
Transport Storage & Communications
6.2
7.4
7)
Other Services*
27.83
33.2
83.82
100
Source: Census of India and projections by DDA Sub-Group (MPD- 2021).
*Includes Central Govt., Quasi Govt., Delhi Admin., Local Bodies and Private Sector etc.
The demographic trends indicate the following:
i)
The rate of growth of the elderly population is expected to show an increasing trend from 5.9% in 2001 to 10.7% in 2021.
ii)
It is projected that the gender composition will shift significantly to a greater parity between numbers of males and females with 102 lakh females and 106 lakh males in 2021
The trend discerned from a comparison of the 1991 Census and 2001 Census shows that the percentage of combined workforce in 'Primary activities, Industry & Construction' is declining and that in 'Services' is increasing. In keeping with this decline, emphasis should be laid on tertiary sector activities such as commerce, sports, IT applications, cultural activities and tourism.
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